Showing posts with label helping business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label helping business. Show all posts

Tuesday, 26 November 2013

Inflation down, interest rates stay; business hopes grow

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, brought some sunshine into lives across the United Kingdom with news of the economy’s growth, lower inflation and declining unemployment.

Downsides to this news — and we have to consider them — is that growth, lower inflation and rising employment should herald a change to the very low interest rates that have helped to mitigate against inflationary pressures that we’ve had over the last few years.

The question I’m interested in is — on behalf of all businesses here in Hertfordshire — when will the Bank of England raise the interest rate? The Governor was clear that the Bank will consider a rise when unemployment falls to 7 per cent. When’s that likely to be? There is some speculation that this will be mid 2015, but perhaps a more realistic expectation will be end 2016.

There is so much riding on rising interest rates, available cash for investment, current productivity levels and household cash for spending in the economy.

What will this mean for local businesses? In a Bank of England briefing to East of England businesses a few days ago, its East of England agent, Phil Eckersley, pointed out that the lending to SMEs was contracting at a faster rate than previously; a concern for the Bank. For smaller businesses however, there has been slightly cheaper financing; credit costs have improved for them.

Business investment and intentions are showing signs of improving. Our export prospects look quite good, despite a recent dip. But we’re still not exporting our way out. What could damage our export prospects is the strengthening of the Stirling on world money markets.

New employment growth is easing back; businesses are beginning to mop up capacity to improve productivity. Companies are expecting output to increase and demand for employment to outstrip jobs. Hopefully this will be a short-lived trend, particularly here in Hertfordshire.

Wages have seen no real change. Private sector earnings are subdued; bonuses are lower too. Prices are likely to rise, but this won’t affect wages.

We are consuming more than we’re earning. This means we’re saving less, which itself means we are feeling much more confident about the future. One indicator of this is the strengthening new car market; we’re rewarding ourselves now.

For household borrowings, which affect money flow into the local economy, there have been some cheap deals on personal loan rates. Housing affordability is a key factor, and while there has been rumour of a housing market bubble in response to Help to Buy initiatives, it is thought that this is highly unlikely; although hotspot overheating might occur in one or two places, such as London.

Britain might be an island, but we’re not immune to less positive recovery headwinds from other continents. Here in Hertfordshire, we must actively encourage micro business ambition, help SMEs where we can pursue finance options such as capital grants and to recruit from the local labour pool, and constantly find ways to create jobs for school leavers.

Monday, 24 June 2013

Exporting is good for Hertfordshire!

Whilst the UK economy is facing challenges at home and aboard the service sector will be the main driver of Britain’s recovery, whilst the manufacturing sector continues to struggle. However as many firms have maintained their skill base and with further support during the recovery, particularly for exporters, the manufacturing sector will gradually continue to rise.


However findings from BCC’s recent skills gap report, cited that gaps around knowing how to take a product to market is holding back potential exporters.

We believe commercial export skills should be central to business education, and help guide entrepreneurs through essential areas of managing finances, cross border supply chains, understanding legal and bureaucratic requirements. The survey also found language skills will be critical to the success of exporters, and currently very few speak the language of their buyer sufficient to do a deal.

Whilst French remains the most commonly spoken language, of 5000 businesses interviewed only 5% had technical French language skills. As the UK continues to drive up exports, and reduce the balance of payments deficit, this is going to be more of a problem. In faster growing markets such as China and Russia, 95% of businesses have no skills in these languages, and yet according to an IMF forecast China will grow by an estimated 7.75% and Russia by 3.4% (IMF)

There is a real need to heighten the importance of languages in the curriculum and skills agenda, and create the next generation of business leaders to be born global, and for businesses to have more incentives to train staff in languages relevant for their International trade.

The Chamber movement has been going for over 200 years, providing businesses with practical support, access to knowledge, skills and encouraging exports through our export seminars, workshops and export documentation and translations services.

For help and advice on export seminars, Country awareness and export documentation please email export@hertschamber.com

Wednesday, 15 August 2012

The 2012 Olympics has proved that we really are ‘Great’ Britain; what we need now is to act as though we really believe it

That we live in an age of innovation is surely beyond doubt but whether we have a sense of the importance of our nations contribution or whether we have successfully adapted to the changes that have resulted, is debatable. In the politically correct world in which we live it has become unfashionable to shout about our strengths but the truth is we have a history of leading the world and, contrary to the opinion of some, we still do play a leading role.


Those of us that are of a certain age will have been brought up to regard the Industrial Revolution, which spanned the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, as the defining period in the development of our modern world economy and whilst people today will, rightly, point to the fact that their peers have taken the technologies of that age to higher, and previously unimaginable, new levels it was the great British engineers of the time such as Brunel, Faraday, Babbage and Stephenson, and the visionary entrepreneurs that supported them, who led the way. Others have learnt to develop their work but it is they who laid the foundations that underpin much of that which we take for granted today.

Future generations brought up on the achievements of the likes of Zuckerberg, Gates and Jobs will probably claim that it is their achievements which are of greater importance, conveniently overlooking the fact that without the invention of the British Tim Berners Lee their products would simply not have existed, .

Actually the debate as to who is the most important, whilst interesting, is arguably fairly pointless as it ignores the fact that a great many people and organisations, working in fields such as medicine, aeronautics, electronics, bio and life sciences across the globe, have made sensational contributions to our modern world. My point is that we often forget that we are a creative nation that has much to offer, a nation that should be enormously proud of its achievements. I strongly believe that if we were to spend more time focusing on the positive we would be more likely to be successful than if, as a nation, we continue to focus on our default position of leaning toward the negative.

Clearly we face challenges, the rest of the world does too, but there is evidence to suggest that we have struggled more than most to come to terms with the demands of such a rapidly changing world. Recognition of the issues is an important starting point. Gaining an understanding of the impact is essential and a good deal more productive than navel gazing. As soon as we have recognised, and fully understood all the implications, the sooner we will be better equipped to react to the resultant range of complex issues that need addressing.

One only needs to consider the future skills people will require to understand just how complex the issues are. Arguably the range of skills required to sustain the Industrial Revolution of the 18th and 19th centuries were, except at the highest level of management, limited and that essentially all that was required were large numbers of people capable of repeating a limited number of easily taught skills, as a consequence, the need to educate or develop a skilled workforce was not the important priority it is today; neither were numerous social considerations that we now regard to be our basic human right.

Nobody can imagine that for a well developed nation adapting to all this change will be straightforward. Indeed, the period following the Industrial Revolution was strewn with political mistakes that had an adverse social and economic impact on a vast number of people and they had none of the challenges presented by a modern democracy. With goodwill and a positive approach we will overcome these challenges.

The 2012 Olympics has proved conclusively that we really are ‘Great’ Britain; what we need now is to act as though we really believe it. We must set aside our faux modesty and our inclination as a nation to talk ourselves down and move forward in a positive fashion. We have much to be proud of, the self flagellation must stop, we need to begin acting as though we really do believe it. After all, we can’t blame the rest of world for not treating us seriously if we fail to do so ourselves.

Monday, 9 July 2012

Business people ask for little other than to be able to operate on ‘a level playing field’

Over the years I have noticed an increase in the impact of holidays, sporting events and other national celebrations on doing business in the UK. Come Easter it seems as though someone has fired a gun and then, as a nation, we metaphorically prepare to pack our buckets and spades. This year, though, we are experiencing the phenomena ‘with bells on’. An additional bank holiday, the Euros, the Olympics followed by the Paralympics added to the usual menu of Wimbledon, the ever growing number of cricket matches and so on.


What the impact of all this is depends very largely upon who you ask. The more optimistic will argue that all this activity encourages people to stay at home and spend their money here rather than on one of the Costas or some Greek Island. At the other extreme those with a somewhat curmudgeonly disposition might argue that all this jollity is more likely to result in hell and damnation raining down upon us all. If you work for Transport for London I guess it’s an opportunity to threaten strike action unless their employer’s handover payments additional to already agreed overtime rates.

For most employers the only choice is to manage the impact as best they can within the confines of the already penal legislation governing employment. No one seems to be too concerned as to how all this affects them and now, joy of joys, we find that they are also required to compensate staff struck down by disease or injury, whatever the cause, whilst they are on holiday. Goodness knows what those dear people in Brussels will think up next.

Actually I enjoy all these supporting occasions as much as the next man, and it was a delight to take part in the Diamond Jubilee celebrations, but I do strongly believe that we need to consider the impact of all this on small businesses in particular. Business people, and I don’t mean the greedy few that are regularly featured by the national press as being representative of the business community, ask for little other than to be able to operate on ‘a level playing field’.

Our competitors in other parts of the world look upon our employment laws with incredulity, the Americans simply do not comprehend how businesses on ‘this side of the pond’ can afford to allow such generous holiday entitlements. Nonetheless I am not arguing that entitlements be reduced, just that the employers obligation to compensate staff for being sick whilst on holiday be wiped from the legislation. It is, frankly, nonsense.

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

There are times in history that call for great leadership. I would suggest that now is one of them

In challenging times when our focus should be on key issues it is depressing to see that nationally, our so called leaders, consider that reflecting upon who ate what, where and with whom carries greater importance than encouraging growth in our economy. There are times in history that call for great leadership I would suggest that now is one of them. We do not need a great debate on hot pies, queues at petrol stations and the usual party political tit for tat. It is time that national leaders of all parties started to ‘man up’ and begin doing what is best for the country.


That times are difficult is beyond dispute but thankfully, despite the seemingly endless shenanigans of the Westminster village, many businesses continue to display admirable levels of resilience and are ‘turning the corner’. It is a great shame that they are not receiving the support they need to fully capitalise on their efforts. I am not talking about handouts, I know there is very little public money available, what we need is a range of clear strategies focused on encouraging a competitive business environment. In any event spending vast sums of public money rarely has a long term effect, one has only to go back to Tony Blair’s ‘education, education, education’ response when asked about his main priorities. Businesses were complaining of difficulties in recruiting skilled staff then and, 15 years and billions of pounds later, it still has difficulty recruiting people with appropriate skills.

Leadership requires conviction and an ability to overcome difficult challenges. Arguably our lack of leadership is illustrated in our inability to overcome what might be described as the ‘too difficult’ strategy issues, take for the example of a lack of an aviation policy. I recognise that this is a controversial issue but, if we are to remain a major trading nation, we must be able, conveniently, to visit our trading partners in other parts of the world. We also need them to visit us. In the past forty years, while many of our competitors have moved forward with numerous major developments, we have built a couple of terminal buildings and increased landing fees making us one of the most expensive places on earth for business people to visit.

Whether it be resolving issues concerning skills, international travel, roads, railways, housing, high speed broadband or a plethora of other infrastructure issues it seems that we have become followers not leaders. We have become bickerers and point makers more interested in promoting narrow vested interests and proving points rather than achieving things. Perhaps, the recently introduced planning regulations will improve the situation, we shall see.

There are numerous other ‘too difficult issues’ many of which are exacerbated by the speed of change in our modern world, they nonetheless must be addressed if we are to maintain our position as a leading trading nation. To paraphrase Einstein it is a sign of insanity to keep doing things the same way expecting a different outcomes, had he been alive today he might well have warned about the dangers of pursuing similar strategies whilst the environment is changing around you.

What might be seen as political rough and tumble in Westminster amongst the national press has consequences elsewhere. I am frankly not concerned about the dietary whims of David Cameron, Ed Milliband and their dinner guests, I am even less interested in their ongoing games. We have overcome a number of challenges in recent years but there will inevitably be more to follow. We do not have time to mess about, we need to address important issues not waste time satisfying the self indulgent mores of the Westminster Village. It needs to change the way it does business, and fast.

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

We have applauded the first two ‘Osborne’ Budgets but on this occasion our verdict is ‘must do better’

As yet another Budget comes and goes I am keenly aware that the rhetoric surrounding it has changed little over the years. Those on the same political side as the Chancellor pick out the bits they like and herald the whole thing as though he had produced the elixir of life, those from the opposition pick out the bits they don’t like and accuse him of being something akin to the devil incarnate. Neither approach does them any credit nor does it do us mere mortals any particular service.


In my view this year’s budget was not too different from the majority I have listened to over the last twenty or thirty years, good in parts not so good in others, from my perspective it neither got the blood racing nor did it make it boil. Of course the reduction in Corporation tax is welcome as is the support for companies engaging in research and development but the failure to retract plans to increase fuel duty and business rates was disappointing. Despite claims to the contrary this was not a budget to inspire growth, it was neutral at best.

Whilst some Hertfordshire businesses are starting to see ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ times remain tough. These, previously announced increases will only hinder hard pressed business people in their efforts to grow profits and in so doing to provide the platform that will create much needed jobs. Arguably this government has done much to stabilise the economy following years of profligacy by its predecessor but much more needs to be done.

Whilst applauding the Chancellor for ‘steadying the ship’ one is, nonetheless, entitled to ask “what next”. Once stability has been achieved we have to plan for growth. As any experienced business person will tell you standing still is rarely an option. There is much to be done and I certainly recognise that the challenges are complex but, loading additional cost burden on thousands of small businesses is not the answer. Certainly the reduction in Corporation Tax will help some but it won’t make up for the additional property costs (including rent) or the burgeoning increases in fuel costs. Added to the additional National Insurance costs landed on business during the last throes of the previous government it requires, if anything, genuine reductions in the cost of doing business.

The British Chambers of Commerce recently launched its ‘Business is good for Britain’ campaign it might have used the word ‘essential’. Whichever way one cuts it when it comes to wealth and job creation business is ‘the only game in town’. Hertfordshire businesses in particular have demonstrated extremely high levels of resilience in the face of rising costs and increased global competition. Given a supportive environment Hertfordshire businesses will begin to take up the slack in the jobs market but they cannot do so if they are continually put under pressure by the effects of indirect taxation. We have applauded the first two ‘Osborne’ Budgets but on this occasion our verdict is ‘must do better’.

Monday, 3 October 2011

Businesses are the wealth creators and should be respected as such

Ed Milliband in his speech to the Labour Party Conference spoke of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ companies apparently judging them on whether they were community minded or not. It reminded me of a question I am often asked ‘why don’t businesses contribute more’. My stock answer? ‘What, apart from providing over 300,000 jobs in the county, paying many tens of millions of pounds in business rates and taxes not to mention the support that many give to local charities, schools, etc.’ I could add that without the many successful businesses we have in this country people would not be able to pay their mortgages, nobody would meet the cost of health care and the transport system would grind to a halt. I could have course say a great deal more but usually by that point I have become more than a little ‘tetchy’ and further comment might become somewhat less measured in tone and content.

Whether Mr Milliband and his friends like it or not businesses are the wealth creators and should be respected as such. Certainly if you dig very deep you will find some that fall short of the high standards most of us set but, frankly, however you legislate you will have little impact on them. As I have said many times in this column the country needs business men and women many of whom are prepared to risk their homes, reputation and a great deal more to build and grow the organisations that are essential to the wellbeing of us all. It should also be said that by and large these businesses are created at no expense to the Government and if the people that have invested in them reap rich rewards good luck to them, sadly of course many do not.

What we need from politicians is not the all too frequent gibes but their genuine, well considered support by creating an economic environment that enables us all to prosper. Regardless of whom it might be, or what party they represent, it is my view that we are all more than a little tired of their posturing and apparent unwillingness to stick their heads over the parapet in an effort to find solutions to what currently ails us all. I think it was Tony Blair that commented that unless politicians are in government there is little they can do which may be true but, surely, a politician without conviction is even less use whether in government or not.

All this is important because currently politicians seem to focus more effort on attaching blame and opprobrium to their opponents than they do on finding solutions. Frankly I do not care who said what to whom or who is to blame for the situation we find ourselves in, I want to know who is going to come up with the solutions that are required to move us forward. I recognise that not all suggestions will work but the inert nature of the current debate is not going to get us anywhere either.

If they are struggling for ideas how about extending the NI holiday for start-ups to cover places like Hertfordshire, it might just increase the number of jobs available and result in even more in taxation. How about speeding up the planning system, there has been much talk on this subject but I remain to be convinced that the proposals currently being discussed will make much difference.

Perhaps, all the new employment legislation that is in the pipe line could be consigned to ‘the long grass’. I feel sure that with a little thought a great many more ideas could be brought forward without undermining government spending plans and, more importantly, that just might restore confidence in both our economy and our politicians. Oh and by the way Mr Milliband, I work on the presumption that all businesses are good businesses unless and until they are proved to be otherwise.

Tuesday, 30 August 2011

Recent history has been littered with schemes...drowned in a sea of mediocrity

I doubt whether many employers will turn their noses up at the government’s contention that there is a need to improve workplace skills and I am certainly not going to join them even if they actually exist. Equally I will not be enrolling into that happy band of people who unquestioningly accept pronouncements, usually put forward by Ministers and their obedient servants, to the effect that qualification alone is the answer to our prayers. Indeed where it is due I intend to be as critical of this government as I was of their predecessors.

Whilst welcoming the government’s commitment to support an increase in skills within the UK workforce I have reservations as to whether the ‘new dawn’ brings with it any more realism than that which accompanied past efforts to do so. Without wishing to be seen to be too curmudgeonly it seems to me that recent history has been littered with schemes posing as the latest panacea which, ultimately, have been drowned in a sea of mediocrity.

Why, despite the enormous investment of public money in recent years, have so many schemes failed to produce little more than short term benefits rather than answer the challenges of a competitive global environment? Could it have been that providers were encouraged by a government obsessed with sound bytes to focus on delivering numbers rather than providing a quality product? Could it be that employers, seduced by the promise of fully funded training, failed to demand the higher standards required to ensure that the training on offer satisfied the needs of their business? Could it be that the whole exercise was about funding and bits of paper? Could it be that many of the schemes were simply designed to reduce the level of the political fallout attached to youth unemployment?

Harsh? Unfair? Maybe, but not entirely I think, but are politicians alone to blame? Not entirely we all have to take some of the rap. In truth many of the schemes were appropriate and well thought out, the fault lies within the execution with the result that many people have regarded some of the qualifications arising from them with a degree of disdain rather than take the trouble to understand how they might contribute to their business plans? How many had been content, simply because they were funded, to take them at face value rather than take the trouble to fully read the curriculum to understand what exactly was involved? The scheme was fully funded, the member of staff got a certificate and the provider got paid. Oh! And the politicians were able to boast about yet another contribution to the wellbeing of mankind.

How many of us have really taken the trouble to understand some of the qualifications on offer and the benefits they offer. I recently read the contents of an NVQ Level 3 in Business Administration and will no longer question its efficacy or usefulness. Properly assessed it is a challenging and comprehensive qualification. Whilst accepting that not all providers have engaged in shortcuts or, indeed, all employers have failed to be sufficiently demanding, too few have been as diligent as they might have been. The result? Despite the merits of various qualifications they have ultimately delivered a great deal less than should have been expected.

The solution? Government should introduce a time served system in which higher standards are sought thus reducing the opportunity for shortcuts to be taken. Employers should be more effectively engaged to ensure that training (particularly that which is funded by Government) actually fits the needs of their business. Finally, we all need to understand that training individuals is not simply a philanthropic exercise, unless we treat it as having real value it will regarded as having none.

It is all too easy to question the credibility of vocational qualifications but the truth is that they are important to the future development of our businesses and the people who work in them. Qualifications alone are not the answer, nonetheless, we all need to do more to ensure that they are challenging and appropriate. We all need to value and support the development of higher level skills, if we do they will be held in higher regard by those achieving them. They in turn will make a greater contribution to the businesses for which they work.

Thursday, 11 August 2011

Long term solutions not blame

The recent riots in London and elsewhere have, rightly, attracted enormous condemnation of those concerned in the looting, arson, theft and other forms criminality. Whatever challenges, real or imagined, the participants face there can be no conceivable excuse for their actions and I for one hope that the courts treat those that come before them in an exemplary fashion. The indiscriminate and unprovoked attacks on people in their homes, and while working in their businesses, has been truly sickening.
Apart from having to witness a variety of atrocious occurrences I guess the next thing we will be forced to endure will be the in-fighting amongst politicians of all parties whose horizons do not go beyond the next election. It didn’t take long to start and, no doubt, the bickering will grow in intensity during the coming weeks and months. So and so didn’t come back from their holidays soon enough; the cuts and withdrawal of benefits/EMA/community support were bound to result in these poor disenfranchised souls feeling the need to steal the latest 55” TV/i-pad/i-pod or whatever else took their fancy. Before any attempt is made to find solutions the game will largely be about ensuring that no blame attaches to them and, wherever possible, as much mud as possible is slung at the other side. The truth is that these examples of appalling behaviour were not caused by politicians of any party the responsibility lies fairly and squarely upon the shoulders of those who took part.
Despite recognising that politicians are not directly to blame it is clear that they do have a role in developing strategies that will make it less likely that these riots recur. The job to be done is enormous and will not be concluded following the uncovering of some form of miraculous ‘silver bullet’ nor, in my view, will solutions be found in committing the police to attending yet more community meetings.
My Grandmother was fond of reminding me that ‘the devil makes work for idle hands’ so maybe the starting point should be to find these people work. The flaw in that idea, though, is that most seem to be unemployable, unable or unwilling to speak in understandable English and largely of the view that the world owes them a living. On the latter point the world owes them nothing they are not prepared to work for and it is most certainly not incumbent on employers to conform to their strange twisted view of life.
Are they lost causes? Some may be but hopefully most can be redeemed, although this won’t happen if we excuse their every misdemeanour. In the meantime we desperately need to be working on those who are likely to follow them to ensure that they develop respect for themselves and others.
In the short term we need the government to do all it can to support all the businesses affected to get back on their feet and their staff back into work, more profound solutions will take a great deal longer.

Wednesday, 29 June 2011

London 2012 - To The Point

Like many others my potentially bank busting efforts to get a ticket, just about any ticket, for London 2012 have failed. Am I bothered, well yes actually but I expect I’ll get over it. In the meantime, however, and whilst pondering the injustice of it all, my thoughts have turned towards other questions arising from the process. If, for example, we are all experiencing such hard times how come the offer was oversubscribed so many times over? What has been the impact of so much cash being tied up over the last month or so waiting for the call? And, if the chance to attend the Games has passed so many people by will there be other opportunities arising from them?

Maybe less cash was tied up than we might suppose, perhaps most people were simply gambling on their credit cards not getting ‘maxed out’. We will probably never know but it will be interesting to see if there is any impact on the various economic indicators covering the period when they are published over the next few months. In time, though, what may come to be regarded as more important is whether the games were fully exploited for the benefit of the widest number of people.

Lest anyone should think I am anything other than totally supportive of the Games I would just like to say that, like millions of other people, I am delighted that London won the bid for the 2012 Games and will bathe in the glow of what I am sure will be one of the most memorable events to have occurred in the UK during my lifetime. I am delighted that they are here and, apart from the many social and sporting benefits they will undoubtedly bring, I am convinced that they will also have a significant impact on the country’s economy. Nevertheless I am not blind to the opportunities that may be missed.

I have always thought that the best possible Games legacy would be the raising of peoples aspirations in general and those of young people in particular. Not just as the result of witnessing great sporting achievements but also arising from the tremendous feats involved in constructing the stadia and other facilities on time and largely to budget. With a year to go it is not too late, and maybe plans are already in place, to fully exploit the inspiring stories arising from planning, building and delivering the greatest show on earth.

Does it matter? Yes I think so. At a time when more than ever we need to be competitive raising aspirations and developing a greater understanding of the value of skills is essential. The Games presents a wonderful opportunity to facilitate this, and to promote the benefits of Apprenticeships and other forms of training, whilst demonstrating the ability of people in this country to achieve great things and by showcasing the development of new technologies. I understand perfectly well the need to have pushed on and build facilities without undue constraint or distraction but, given that so much seems to have been delivered ahead of time, might more have been done. Thus far it would seem that more effort still is required to engage young people and their teachers in particular in the non-sporting aspects of the games.

I am convinced that the Games will live long in the memory being right up there with events such as Stevenage FC winning back to back promotions and Saracens winning the Guinness Premiership for the first time (many congratulations to them both). We will, of course, remember and celebrate our sporting winners but I also hope that we will look back and recall how the Games inspired a generation of young people to greater achievements in other aspects of their lives.

Tuesday, 19 April 2011

Interest Rates – Just go along with the ride

It was good to open my paper this morning to discover that a number of renowned economists had begun to realise what businesses had been telling us for months, a rise in interests rates at the moment would be anything but good news. Businesses who had been speaking to us had not applied any great economic academic ‘know how’ to their thinking just the highly valuable, but all too sadly rare commodity, common sense.

Who would have thought that adding to the costs of people mortgages at a time of economic uncertainty would not have an effect on already fragile growth? Who would believe that raising rates would have an impact on inflation largely caused by increased taxation, rises in the cost of oil and soaring world food prices? Well at least three members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee apparently.

There are occasions when one should ‘doff one’s cap’ to the experts but when they are driven by old fashioned dogma which dictates that when prices rise too fast the only cure is adding to the cost of borrowing they deserve to be castigated. We find ourselves in a world which is very different to the one that used to respond to such a course of action. If proof of that were needed one has only to consider that on a day when Portugal is seeking to be ‘bailed out’ there are also mutterings about the credit rating of the good old USA.

I have no doubt that the world will work its way through this challenging period but it will be made more difficult if we get our strategies wrong. There will certainly be times when it will be essential to stick doggedly to old beliefs but for the time being, and as far as interest rates are concerned, now is the time to hold our nerve and be pragmatic. It might not be a comfortable experience for some members of the MPC but they should just accept that there is little they can do and that they should hold tight and go along with the ride.

Friday, 21 January 2011

Economy!!

It is frightening to think that we live in an age where it seems that the country is being driven by those who can shout the loudest and shout the longest providing sound bites for the press and applying pressure on politicians.

The publication this week of the inflation figures attracted just such a response from the city hoping presumably that press and politicians alike would ‘lean on’ the Bank of England. “Inflation must be brought under control, interest rates must be raised to do so”. It seems to me that many of those making such assertions are several places removed from the realities of every day business life and, in any case, are pursuing a very narrow agenda.

I cannot believe that anyone would argue against the view that inflation needs to be brought under control but I have serious concerns for anyone who suggests that interest rates should rise. Our current levels of inflation are not driven by domestic business nor do they result from consumers entering a new age of profligacy. Inflation is higher than we would like because indirect taxes and world commodity prices have risen. Quoting figures published by the BBC, if it were not for these factors, domestic inflation would be below target at 1.9%. It is difficult, therefore, to see what difference raising interest rates would have on inflation in any case.

In difficult economic times businesses and employees (except those working on London Underground) have displayed incredible levels of restraint, the former absorbing as much cost as it can and the latter resisting the urge to make impractical wage demands. Few would be able to continue to do so if the cost of borrowing rises too.

The last thing any business needs is an increase in borrowing costs (assuming of course it can get it) and an increase in the cost of mortgages, etc. hitting their employees and customers could be catastrophic.

As confidence in the economy grows I acknowledge that the Monetary Policy Committee will have to carefully manage a rise in interest rates but I cannot see that being justified in the foreseeable future. In the meantime if the powers that be are going to listen to those that shout too much I hope they listen to me.

Wednesday, 19 January 2011

Shared Parental Leave Proposals Ignore Needs of Business

Commenting on today’s Government announcement concerning Shared Parental Leave David Frost, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said,

"While Nick Clegg’s announcement may prove to be politically popular it fundamentally ignores the needs of business.

Last week, David Cameron claimed a pro-growth, pro-business, pro-jobs agenda, but now the Government expects small businesses to cope with yet more red tape".

David went on to say, "This is yet another example of rushed thinking. It suggests that the Government is out of touch with how to support business owners. This sort of red tape is like a sledgehammer hitting small businesses which should be sources of growth and jobs."

We agree with him, what do you think?

Thursday, 15 January 2009

Getting the message across...

My colleague David Frost at the British Chambers of Commerce has certainly stirred up a hornets nest with his description of the outcome of BCCs most recent quarterly survey. Frightening, awful were just a couple of the adjectives he used. Personally I am concerned about the seemingly endless queue of people lining up to tell us how bad things are but, nonetheless, can understand where he is coming from. Things are certainly not as we would wish them to be.

I would prefer it if we all drew breath and allowed time for some of the measures that have been put in place to work. The reality of course is that until the banks start doing business very little is likely to change but, at least, the announcement by Lord Mandelson that there will be further funding to support lending should help. Following fast on David’s words I am sure he will claim that the BCC were instrumental in speeding up this process and, in fairness, so would I. Indeed it is correct to say that the British Chambers have led the debate throughout and I wouldn’t mind a small wager that they will be the first to call the recovery too.

Balancing the requirements to encourage government action and the need to protect business interests is not always an easy trick but the BCC has generally trod the line with a high level of expertise.

Looking forward it seems to me that one of the key messages arising from the problems in the economy is to learn the lessons. The current economic conditions not only cause difficulties but also identify, and amplify, some of our existing shortcomings.

As we fall down the OECD skills tables one cannot help thinking that if we are to continue attracting high levels of inward investment we will have to raise the level, and relevance, of the skills we seek to give our workforce. Despite announcements of redundancies there are still vacancies but sadly many require skills that we are short of, skills to support the engineering, electronics and pharmaceutical industries to name but a few.

If we are looking for some good news it is that we have many innovative and creative businesses with growth potential, we simply need to find more effective means of supporting them.